Stock Futures Surge on Reports Trump May Conclude Iran Conflict Early

TLDR

• Equity futures advanced Tuesday following indications Trump administration may conclude Iran conflict without demanding Strait of Hormuz reopening
• Dow futures jumped 1%, S&P 500 contracts climbed 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.8%
• Major equity benchmarks heading toward poorest quarterly performance since 2022
• Crude oil prices maintained elevated levels, with WTI trading over $100 per barrel
• Market participants anticipate March consumer sentiment figures and February jobs data

Equity futures in the United States advanced Tuesday morning following reports indicating President Trump’s potential willingness to conclude military operations in Iran without insisting on complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed approximately 459 points, representing a 1% increase. S&P 500 futures jumped 0.9% while Nasdaq 100 contracts advanced 0.8%.

The upward momentum followed a Monday evening Wall Street Journal report revealing that Trump and his advisors had determined that a campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would prolong the military engagement beyond the administration’s desired four-to-six-week timeframe.

In a Tuesday morning Truth Social post, Trump appeared to indicate a de-escalation strategy. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” the president stated. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

Macro strategist Henry Allen from Deutsche Bank noted the Wall Street Journal report had “raised hopes that the current phase of the conflict will wind down soon,” observing that “the market tone has become decidedly more positive overnight.”

Tuesday marks the conclusion of first-quarter trading. According to Dow Jones Market Data, all three primary indexes are trending toward their weakest quarterly results since 2022.

Monday saw declines across all three benchmarks as early session gains evaporated amid investor concerns regarding the continuing Middle Eastern military engagement.

Market sentiment had deteriorated significantly entering Tuesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index exceeded 30 on Monday, indicating heightened investor nervousness.

Crude Prices Remain Elevated Despite Diplomatic Progress

Oil prices continued trading at elevated levels despite improving diplomatic signals. West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first occasion since 2022. During Tuesday morning trading, WTI futures added another 0.4% to reach $103.28 per barrel. Brent crude remained unchanged at $107.38.

Equities have found it challenging to sustain rallies in recent weeks when petroleum prices remain elevated, which continues troubling market participants.

Gold futures increased 0.5% to $4,581 per ounce during early sessions. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined one basis point to 4.33%. The greenback held steady against major currency peers.

Messaging from the nation’s capital has been inconsistent. While certain officials have highlighted diplomatic advancement, Trump separately floated the possibility of American seizure of Iranian petroleum resources.

Economic Releases Scheduled for Tuesday

Market participants await new economic indicators later Tuesday. Both the March consumer confidence index and the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey are scheduled for release. These publications are anticipated to provide enhanced insight into the American economy’s status entering the second quarter.

The joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran reached its fifth week as of Tuesday.