Amazon (AMZN) Stock: How Anthropic’s $30B ARR Is Fueling AWS Growth

Key Takeaways

• KeyBanc boosted Amazon’s price target from $285 to $325, suggesting approximately 30% upside potential from present trading levels.
• Anthropic’s annualized recurring revenue skyrocketed from $9B in December 2025 to $30B by April 2026, positioning it as a major AWS revenue driver.
• Analysts at KeyBanc believe AWS captures approximately 60% of Anthropic’s overall expenditure.
• CEO Andy Jassy has signaled potential plans to sell Trainium chips externally, with chip-related revenue already crossing $20B via AWS.
• Shares of Amazon declined 1.4% to $247.18 on Monday, trading approximately 1.4% under its November 2025 record close.

Amazon is garnering increased optimism from Wall Street analysts as its April 29 earnings release approaches, fueled primarily by Anthropic’s remarkable expansion and robust AWS performance.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

Justin Patterson, an analyst at KeyBanc, upgraded his Amazon price target to $325 from $285 over the weekend. This represents approximately 30% upside from Monday’s opening price levels.

Patterson simultaneously increased his revenue projections, bumping 2026 sales forecasts up by 1% and 2027 estimates by 2%.

Amazon stock retreated 1.4% during Monday’s session to $247.18, weighed down by broader market concerns surrounding escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Friday’s close of $250.56 positioned the stock merely 1.4% beneath its record closing price from November 2025.

The investment narrative entering earnings appears increasingly attractive.

Anthropic has emerged as a pivotal contributor to the AWS growth story. The company’s annualized recurring revenue exploded from $9 billion in December 2025 to $30 billion in early April 2026 — growth metrics that demand attention.

KeyBanc’s analysis suggests AWS receives roughly 60% of Anthropic’s total infrastructure spending. This represents a substantial revenue stream linked to one of the world’s fastest-expanding artificial intelligence enterprises.

Anthropic has maintained aggressive product innovation momentum. The company launched Claude Opus 4.7 this month — representing its most sophisticated reasoning model to date. Additionally, it introduced Claude Mythos, described as a “hyper-agentic” model that Anthropic has deliberately restricted from public access citing national security considerations.

AWS Acceleration Expected

Patterson highlighted his expectation for a “combination of capacity gains, AI diffusion, and client expansion” to propel AWS during the first quarter. His forecast calls for 30% year-over-year AWS growth — representing acceleration from 2025’s full-year AWS revenue of $128.7 billion, which marked 20% growth versus the previous year.

Encouraging quarterly results from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) last week reinforced confidence that AI infrastructure demand remains solid entering earnings season.

Dan Ives from Wedbush amplified this sentiment. “We are seeing no cracks in AI demand on the chips/hardware or software front,” he noted, characterizing it as a “bright green light” for owning leading technology stocks.

Expanding Revenue Streams Beyond Cloud

Amazon’s proprietary Trainium chip division has already generated over $20 billion in AWS revenue, expanding at triple-digit percentage rates annually. In his latest shareholder letter, Jassy suggested openness to distributing Trainium chips to external customers — potentially unlocking another significant growth avenue.

On the retail front, KeyBanc highlighted healthy grocery segment performance and the impending launch of Amazon Leo, the company’s satellite-based internet offering. Amazon recently finalized an agreement to acquire Globalstar, securing additional spectrum to facilitate Leo’s deployment.

Patterson did identify one headwind: ongoing Iran-related conflict has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while elevating fuel expenses. He anticipates this will create pressure on Amazon’s second-quarter outlook. The company’s recently implemented 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party marketplace sellers, introduced earlier this month, may partially mitigate this impact.

Amazon is scheduled to release first-quarter financial results on April 29.